[e-gold-list] Re: today's "Downsizer Dispatch"

[Jim Davidson]

Dear Jim,  

> We are amazed. Ron Paul has set records for fundraising. His poll
> numbers are also good,

If one looks here:
 http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=6735
one finds the rather impressive number of 15 percent of
Americans self-identifying as libertarian, rather than as
conservative or liberal.

If one looks at the national numbers for Republican party
candidates, there are at least five other candidates who
have been polling better than Ron Paul among what are called
"likely Republican primary voters."  They are McCain, Romney,
Thompson, Giuliani, and Huckabee.  Which means that Dr. Paul
would have to do well in a six-way race, if he is to do well
at all.

Even though his own poll numbers have run up to 9% or so in
recent weeks, that's still below the number needed for a win
in any of the primaries against five other candidates.  But,
there are some boggles to the numbers.  Foremost, the persons
most likely to be contacted as "likely Republican primary
voters" are those ultra-conservatives who showed up to vote
in the 2004 primary - when GW Bush was re-anointed to get the
nod from his party.  Few libertarian sorts would likely have
bothered.

Further, such polls often depend on land line phone numbers, for
reasons beyond my ken or imagination, and thus do not reflect
the large number of libertarian sorts who have only a cell
phone, or a VOIP phone.  Since Dr. Paul does especially well
among the tech savvy and the young, his votes are not necessarily
reflected in those polls.  The only way to be sure is to wait
until an actual caucus or an actual primary.

However, if, say, Keyes, Tancredo, and Hunter were to take off
4% of the vote, then the remaining six candidates would each
need 16% to be even with each other.  A dead heat.  And, with
15% of the population nationwide self-identifying as libertarian,
that is within the realm of possibility.

As well, those supporting Dr. Paul are unlikely to switch to
another candidate, while those supporting the others might like
the front-runner no matter who it is.  Which means that if one
candidate, such as Huckabee, gets 32% in Iowa, he is likely to
take about equally from the other four, rather than from Dr.
Paul.  Assuming they are are about equally likely to win the
nomination, then one could find Huckabee with 32%, Paul with
16%, and the other four with 12% each.

Personally, I think a second place finish in any of the four
early states (Wyoming, Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina)
would put Dr. Paul in the running.

Regards,

Jim
 http://indomitus.net/

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